
September 2008
THIRD QUARTER RESULTS COULD RECAST EXPECTATIONS FOR 2008
An interview with Rich Parower, Portfolio Manager of Seligman Global Technology Fund.
After pulling back sharply early in July, stocks have rebounded. Do you think the worst may be over?
Rich Parower: I think the second quarter turned out better than many thought it would, and the pullback early in the current quarter may have been a reaction to that. We seem to have found a bottom in mid July, however. Since then the markets have remained volatile, but the trend has been up. How the third quarter turns out is key, I think. If the markets experience another setback, we may see companies reset earnings expectations for the year. A lot depends on the Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac issue. If we get some kind of resolution not necessarily improvement, but at least stabilization it should help the overall business trend going into the end of the year.
Has the current difficulty influenced your approach?
Parower: Weve become more cautious with our expectations but we havent changed our approach. Weve been particularly focused on trying to pick the right spots, which weve done relatively well so far this year. Our emphasis on Software and our conviction in our top holdings has helped keep us ahead of the market and our peers, and were selectively adding to positions we like in the weak market at good prices. Software continues to hold up better than many other areas in Tech. Weve seen particularly strong results in Security Software, which has been driven by demand on both the consumer and enterprise sides. Security Software firms are benefiting from new product introductions and up-sell opportunities to existing clients. Our results in that area from McAfee, Check Point, and Symantec have been strong this year. All three are currently top 10 holdings in Seligman Communications and Information Fund and Seligman Global Technology Fund.
Has the faltering US market affected demand overseas?
Parower: Tech has gotten a boost over the last several quarters from overseas demand, and one of the things we tout about Technology is its greater exposure to growing markets worldwide than many other sectors. As the US market has fallen, the emerging BRIC markets (Brazil/Russia/India/China) have held up relatively well. The BRIC economies are moderating China in particular seems to be in an Olympics-driven lull but compared to developed markets, growth remains robust.
I am concerned about Europe, which had fared relatively well since the US troubles began. Were beginning to see slowing on the Consumer level there, which is troubling because the fourth quarter for Tech has historically been tough over there anyway. So portfolio exposure to Europe is something well be watching closely in the third quarter.
Youve said youre scaling back expectations. When do you think Tech might get back on track?
Parower: The markets are uncertain, and well likely see more short-term volatility. Second quarter results were surprisingly strong, but they reflected the economic stimulus payments, and thats going away. The effects of the subprime/credit crisis continue to linger. Economic growth hasnt yet turned negative, but it has slowed to a crawl. Energy prices have pulled back from their peaks, but high gas and fuel prices are still putting a crimp on consumers and corporations alike. I expect things will be tough for the next couple of months. Hopefully well see improvement going into the fourth quarter, when Tech stocks have been historically strong.
Our process has always emphasized selectivity, and in this environment picking our spots carefully is as important as ever. Good fundamentals are crucial, and companies that are not as dependent on cyclical demand or that have competitive products at lower price points are more likely do well. Against this level of uncertainty, were keeping our focus on the longer term. Were generally making picks today that we believe will make a difference over the next 12 months as opposed to the next three months.
On November 7, 2008, RiverSource Investments, LLC ("RiverSource Investments") announced the closing of its acquisition of J. & W. Seligman & Co. Incorporated. With the acquisition completed and shareholders of each Seligman Mutual Fund having previously approved (at special meetings held earlier in November 2008) a new investment management services agreement between each such Fund and RiverSource Investments and, if applicable, new subadvisory and delegation agreements, RiverSource Investments is the new investment manager of the Seligman Mutual Funds effective November 7, 2008. Current subadvisers of the Funds will continue to provide portfolio management services to those Funds to which they were providing services.
For more information on Seligmans technology funds, contact your Financial Advisor, call Seligman Advisors, Inc. at 800-221-2783, or visit www.seligman.com.
NOT FDIC INSURED NOT BANK GUARANTEED MAY LOSE VALUE
